The Fragmentation of Global Flows: Assessing Risks of System Collapse and Implications for European Security

The interconnected transformation of global human, material, and virtual flows presents profound challenges for system stability and European security. The convergence of Trump's retreat from globalization, proliferating conflicts, environmental degradation, and technological vulnerabilities creates unprecedented systemic risks. While a total global collapse remains a distant possibility, the increasing probability of partial systemic failures demands urgent attention.

For Europe, these dynamics create both vulnerabilities and strategic imperatives. European security frameworks must evolve to address not just traditional military threats but also data security, resource dependencies, environmental risks, and the potential fragmentation of crucial global flows. The EU's comprehensive approach to security provides a foundation for addressing these interconnected challenges, but requires further development to match the scale and complexity of emerging threats.

The evidence suggests that humanity stands at a critical juncture, with decisions made in the coming years likely to determine whether global systems experience controlled transformation or chaotic collapse. Rather than passively allowing limits to growth to impose themselves, there remains an opportunity to consciously choose alternative pathways that enhance resilience while respecting planetary boundaries. For Europe, this means not only strengthening traditional security capacities but also building strategic autonomy in critical resources, protecting data sovereignty, and fostering international cooperation despite the headwinds of nationalism and protectionism.

The fragmentation of global flows does not necessarily mean the end of global cooperation, but rather requires its reinvention to reflect new geopolitical realities. Europe's security in this transformed landscape will depend on its ability to navigate these complex dynamics while maintaining its core values and strategic interests in an increasingly turbulent world.

Global flows of trade, data, resources, and capital are undergoing profound transformations amid rising geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies, and increasing conflicts. The current trajectory shows alarming signs of systemic stress across multiple domains simultaneously, with potential for cascading failures that could trigger partial or even total system collapse. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, ongoing armed conflicts, environmental degradation, and the apparent retreat from globalization are accelerating these dynamics. This report examines how changes in human, material, and virtual flows are interconnected with collapse risks and analyzes the specific implications for European security in this new geopolitical landscape. Evidence indicates that while complete global collapse remains a distant possibility, partial systemic failures are increasingly likely, requiring urgent attention to resilience strategies, particularly for Europe's interconnected economies and security framework.

## The Transformation of Global Human, Material, and Virtual Flows

Global trade is experiencing a significant transition away from the "global village" era, with stagnation in its share of global GDP. Geopolitical upheavals, from the Ukraine conflict to tensions in the Middle East, are driving fragmentation, while the concept of 'friend-shoring' is redirecting trade based on alliance structures rather than pure economic advantage[1]. This shift represents a fundamental reorganization of globalization patterns that had previously prioritized efficiency over security. The prospect of former President Trump's return to the White House in 2025 has already influenced global trade dynamics, with his administration threatening tariffs of up to 60% on all imported goods, particularly targeting China[1].

Trade between geopolitical blocs is shrinking more significantly than 'intra-bloc' trade, indicating a systematic realignment of global economic flows along political lines[1]. Monthly trade flows between the United States and China have fallen by 20% since their peak in 2021, demonstrating concrete evidence of this decoupling trend[1]. The Biden administration's initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act aimed to repatriate strategic industries to reduce U.S. dependence on China, continuing policies introduced during Trump's first term and maintaining tariffs established in 2018[1]. This represents a deliberate policy choice by major powers to reduce economic interdependence, even at the cost of economic efficiency.

Beyond trade, virtual material flows—including water, energy, land, CO2, nitrogen, and financial capital—continue to evolve in complex patterns. Research shows that between 1995 and 2008, volumes of most virtual flows increased substantially, with financial capital flows growing most rapidly (188.9%), followed by CO2 (59.3%), energy (58.1%), water (50.7%), and nitrogen (10.5%), while land transfer decreased by 8.8%[2][11]. These flows demonstrate strong interconnections, with CO2 and nitrogen flows having particularly strong positive synergetic impacts on other material flows[11]. The top five countries account for a surprisingly large proportion (47% to 80%) of total flow volumes, creating potential vulnerabilities if these key nodes experience disruptions[11]. The finding that volumes of virtual material flows among distant countries were much higher than those among adjacent countries suggests that the fragmentation of globalization could significantly disrupt established patterns[2].

Virtual data flows represent another critical dimension experiencing transformation. The rise of Real-Time Bidding (RTB) technology, active on almost all websites and apps, involves broadcasting sensitive data about people to large numbers of entities without adequate security measures[5]. This creates substantial cybersecurity risks, particularly as some companies reportedly send RTB data about people in the U.S. to Russia and China, where national security agencies can access it[5]. This uncontrolled flow of sensitive information creates vulnerabilities for individuals and institutions alike, including European military personnel and political decision-makers who may be targeted through these mechanisms[5].

Cybersecurity considerations for flow measurement infrastructure reveal additional vulnerabilities. Many communication protocols used in metering systems lack encryption, authentication mechanisms, and are susceptible to various forms of attack including protocol-specific exploits, broadcast storms, and man-in-the-middle attacks[7]. These vulnerabilities create risks not just to the data itself but to the infrastructure that measures and manages critical resource flows. In 2023, over 70% of identified industrial control system vulnerabilities were exploitable remotely, highlighting the expanding attack surface as these systems become more connected[7].

## Systemic Risks and Collapse Scenarios

The convergence of multiple systemic stresses increases the risk of partial or total collapse scenarios. The United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR2022) directly acknowledges the increasing probability of civilizational collapse due to "escalating synergies between disasters, economic vulnerabilities and ecosystem failures"[8]. This stark assessment represents the first time the UN has issued a flagship global report finding that existing global policies are accelerating toward the collapse of human civilization, though it doesn't specify how imminent this possibility might be[8].

Central to these risks is the transgression of planetary boundaries—the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. Current scientific assessments indicate that six of the nine systems and processes that provide life-supporting functions for our planet are now outside their safe operating space[10]. Climate change represents a particularly concerning boundary crossing, with Earth now having warmed 1.14°C compared to pre-industrial conditions and most of this warming occurring in the last 50 years[10]. The transgression of these boundaries increases the risk of destabilizing the planet as a whole, potentially undermining the livability of Earth for all humans in terms of water, food, health, and security[10].

The climate system contains several potential tipping points—thresholds beyond which large-scale, irreversible changes become likely. For the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, tropical coral reef systems, and abrupt thawing of permafrost in the Arctic, scientific consensus indicates a high risk of tipping beyond 1.5°C global warming[10]. If these early tipping elements are triggered, future generations would face approximately 10 meters of sea level rise, the ruin of livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people dependent on coastal tropical reef ecosystems, and feedback loops that would accelerate warming further[10].

The 1972 "Limits to Growth" report and subsequent analyses offer valuable perspectives on potential collapse trajectories. Using computer models developed at MIT, researchers warned that continuing business-as-usual growth trends in population, industrialization, pollution, and resource depletion would likely lead to limits being reached within a century, resulting in "a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity"[15]. Recent analyses comparing the original projections with empirical data suggest that humanity remains on a trajectory consistent with scenarios leading to collapse, with population and pollution continuing to increase but decreased food and medical services causing death rates to rise from around 2020 onward, potentially leading to rapid population decline beginning around 2030[15].

Even in scenarios where technological advances are assumed to double available resources, collapse still occurs due to pollution (interpreted to include greenhouse gases causing climate change)[15]. While extreme technological innovation might prevent outright collapse, such approaches come at high costs that reduce resources available for essential services like food production, health, and education[15]. The analysis concludes that "humanity is on a path to having limits to growth imposed on itself rather than consciously choosing its own"[15].

## The Trump Factor and the Retreat from Globalization

The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 marks a decisive shift away from the post-World War II model of American-led globalization. His administration's policies make clear that "America's postwar experiment with globalization is over"[3]. No longer the lone superpower dominating the world economy, the United States is charting a new course in an uncertain world, with Trump's approach representing a significant departure from previous administrations[3].

On February 4, 2025, President Trump signed a sweeping executive order with far-reaching implications for global engagement. The directive mandates a comprehensive review within 180 days of all current multilateral organizations of which the United States is a member and all international treaties to which it is party, with the explicit purpose of determining whether such support should be withdrawn[12]. This represents a potential unraveling of decades of American global engagement and the distinctive post-1945 American internationalism that embedded U.S. power in multilateral institutions designed to support a peaceful, prosperous, and just world[12].

While the immediate targets include specific organizations like the UN Human Rights Council, UNESCO, and the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees, the broader implications are far more consequential[12]. The directive could potentially lead to U.S. abrogation of thousands of treaties and departure from hundreds of multilateral organizations, fundamentally reshaping the international order[12]. This builds upon actions from Trump's first term, which included withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and announced intention to leave the World Health Organization[12].

The administration's approach to international trade represents a particularly dramatic shift. Free-trade skeptics within the administration advocate for high and universal tariffs, while market-minded Cabinet members prefer a more targeted approach[3]. However, both camps agree that faith in international markets has been replaced by fear of international rivalry, and that government will have a larger role in directing foreign trade going forward[3]. This represents a philosophical shift in which growth sometimes takes a back seat to geopolitics—a view now embraced across the political spectrum, with consensus that "in these areas, we're going to be a little less rich, but a little more secure"[3].

China's rise as an economic rival has catalyzed this transformation in American thinking. In the traditional globalist view, nations embracing free trade would become politically freer, but China's growth as an authoritarian economic powerhouse challenged this assumption[3]. Even committed globalists now accept that in an age of geopolitical rivalry, national security concerns eclipse economic growth priorities[3]. This fundamental reorientation toward protectionism and economic nationalism represents a significant driver of global flow fragmentation.

## Global Conflicts and Their Systemic Impacts

The current global landscape is characterized by an unprecedented proliferation of conflicts, with close to 60 armed conflicts raging in 2023[4]. In the 2025 Global Risks Report, conflict between and within states was identified as the most important of 33 risks for 2025 in an annual survey of more than 900 government, business, and civil society leaders, jumping from eighth place the previous year[4]. This dramatic rise in conflict risk perception reflects a deteriorating security environment with profound implications for global flows and system stability.

Contemporary conflicts manifest in various forms: international conflicts between states, hybrid conflicts involving regional powers and proxies, internal conflicts within countries, and coups and insurrections contributing to state collapse[4]. What makes 2025 particularly dangerous is that all these categories of armed conflict are occurring simultaneously, are interconnected, and are subject to few international guardrails to prevent escalation[4]. Major conflicts like those between Ukraine and Russia and between Israel and its neighbors have generated mass casualties and could potentially spread, with both posing nuclear threats[4]. Simultaneously, tensions between nuclear-armed countries in South and East Asia over disputed territories could escalate, while civil wars in countries like Myanmar and Sudan generate humanitarian crises with regional impacts[4].

The geopolitical recession—characterized by deepening tensions between the U.S. and China over trade, technology, and Taiwan; Russia's invasion of Ukraine; sharpening conflict in the Middle East; and various global shocks—has amplified conflict risks[4]. Concerns exist that the Trump administration could further intensify this geopolitical recession in 2025, with the president having floated ideas about expanding U.S. influence through territorial acquisition, potentially triggering similar efforts by other powers in their neighborhoods[4].

A critical dimension of current conflict dynamics is the unraveling of global institutions designed to safeguard international peace and security. The UN Security Council has been paralyzed for years, with countries from the Global South claiming it does not adequately represent their interests[4]. The reluctance of permanent members to expand the Council is eroding its ability to prevent, manage, and end global conflicts[4]. This dysfunction has far-reaching impacts, undermining support for peacekeeping missions (deployed peacekeepers declined from 100,000 in 2016 to 69,000 by 2024) and affecting conflict prevention, peacebuilding, humanitarian assistance, development, and climate action[4].

## European Security in an Age of Fragmentation

Europe faces unique security challenges in this fragmented global landscape. The end of the Cold War produced a drastic change in Europe's security environment, triggering waves of inter- and intra-State armed conflicts and necessitating a multidimensional approach to security[9]. The European Union's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) aims to enable EU countries to take responsibility for security and stability on their continent and beyond, particularly as the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009 and appointment of a President and Foreign Minister enhanced the EU's potential as a global security actor[9].

However, Europe faces significant vulnerabilities in this new era. The Irish Council for Civil Liberties has identified a "hidden security crisis" involving the flow of sensitive data about European defense personnel and political leaders to foreign states and non-state actors[5]. Real-Time Bidding technology broadcasts sensitive information about individuals to numerous entities without adequate security measures, allowing bad actors to potentially target individuals' financial problems, mental state, and compromising personal secrets[5]. Even if target individuals use secure devices, data about them can still flow via RTB from personal devices, friends, family, and other contacts[5].

This data vulnerability extends to surveillance capabilities, with private surveillance companies in foreign countries deploying RTB data for surreptitious monitoring[5]. The investigation revealed "Patternz," a previously unreported surveillance tool using RTB to profile 5 billion people, including the children of targets[5]. Additionally, psychological profiling similar to the Cambridge Analytica scandal can track targets' movements, financial and mental health problems, and other vulnerabilities, including whether they are likely survivors of sexual abuse[5]. This represents a significant security vulnerability for European institutions and leadership.

The comprehensive approach to European security aims to deploy the full spectrum of available instruments beyond traditional defense considerations[9]. The strategic partnership between NATO and the EU represents one pillar of the European and transatlantic security architecture, with both organizations making vital contributions to European security[9]. However, this integrated approach creates complex interdependencies that may be vulnerable to disruption in an increasingly fragmented global environment.

The broader context of global system fragility poses additional challenges for European security. If planetary boundaries continue to be transgressed, Europe will face escalating environmental stresses alongside geopolitical tensions. Climate change impacts, resource scarcity, and potential conflicts triggered by environmental degradation would compound existing security challenges[10]. Similarly, if the "Limits to Growth" projections prove accurate, Europe could face systemic stresses related to resource constraints, pollution impacts, and population dynamics within the next decade[15].

## Conclusion: Navigating an Uncertain Future

The interconnected transformation of global human, material, and virtual flows presents profound challenges for system stability and European security. The convergence of Trump's retreat from globalization, proliferating conflicts, environmental degradation, and technological vulnerabilities creates unprecedented systemic risks. While a total global collapse remains a distant possibility, the increasing probability of partial systemic failures demands urgent attention.

For Europe, these dynamics create both vulnerabilities and strategic imperatives. European security frameworks must evolve to address not just traditional military threats but also data security, resource dependencies, environmental risks, and the potential fragmentation of crucial global flows. The EU's comprehensive approach to security provides a foundation for addressing these interconnected challenges, but requires further development to match the scale and complexity of emerging threats.

The evidence suggests that humanity stands at a critical juncture, with decisions made in the coming years likely to determine whether global systems experience controlled transformation or chaotic collapse. Rather than passively allowing limits to growth to impose themselves, there remains an opportunity to consciously choose alternative pathways that enhance resilience while respecting planetary boundaries. For Europe, this means not only strengthening traditional security capacities but also building strategic autonomy in critical resources, protecting data sovereignty, and fostering international cooperation despite the headwinds of nationalism and protectionism.

The fragmentation of global flows does not necessarily mean the end of global cooperation, but rather requires its reinvention to reflect new geopolitical realities. Europe's security in this transformed landscape will depend on its ability to navigate these complex dynamics while maintaining its core values and strategic interests in an increasingly turbulent world.

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