Ukraine support overview

This report analyses the comprehensive support provided to Ukraine by the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) countries, comprising Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden. It highlights their unprecedented financial commitment, amounting to billions of euros, and their leading position as per capita contributors to Ukraine's defence. The report examines the strategic rationale behind this support, emphasizing the NB8's view of Ukraine's sovereignty as integral to European security and their assessment of Russia as a direct threat. Furthermore, it details the various forms of assistance offered, including military equipment, training, and investments in Ukraine's defence industry, and addresses future directions for sustained and coordinated aid, with the aim of ensuring a just and lasting peace.Paragraph.

​# Nordic-Baltic Support for Ukraine: An Analysis of the NB8's Comprehensive Assistance Strategy

The Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) countries—Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden—have emerged as pivotal supporters of Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression. This report examines the substantial contributions these nations have made, their strategic rationale for supporting Ukraine, and the coordinated mechanisms they have established to maximize the effectiveness of their assistance efforts.

## Scale and Significance of Nordic-Baltic Support

### Unprecedented Financial Commitment

The Nordic-Baltic countries have demonstrated an extraordinary financial commitment to Ukraine's defense and sovereignty. As of early 2025, these eight nations have collectively provided approximately 26 billion euros in various forms of aid to Ukraine[1]. This remarkable figure underscores the region's dedication to supporting Ukraine's resistance against Russian aggression, particularly when considering the relatively modest population and economic size of these countries compared to larger European powers. Their contributions represent one of the most significant regional support efforts for Ukraine in proportional terms.

### Per Capita Contribution Leadership

The NB8 countries have consistently emphasized their position as leading per-capita contributors to Ukraine's defense efforts. In a joint statement issued in February 2025, the Nordic and Baltic leaders explicitly identified their nations as "some of the largest per-capita contributors of military assistance to Ukraine" and firmly committed to "further bolster our support"[6][7]. This characterization is not merely rhetorical but reflects the actual proportional investment these countries have made relative to their populations and economies. Their consistent messaging on this point demonstrates both pride in their contributions and a desire to set an example for other international partners.

### Recent Individual Country Contributions

Individual NB8 members have announced substantial aid packages that demonstrate their ongoing commitment. Norway's parliament approved an extension of its Nansen Support Program for Ukraine for an additional three years in November 2024, allocating at least NOK 35 billion (approximately EUR 3.1 billion) for the following year[7]. In January 2025, Sweden's government unveiled its largest military aid package to Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, amounting to SEK 13.5 billion (approximately $1.23 billion)[7]. During the same period, Finnish President Alexander Stubb approved a new aid package worth nearly EUR 200 million[7]. These substantial individual contributions demonstrate that support for Ukraine remains a top priority across the Nordic-Baltic region.

## Strategic Rationale Behind Supporting Ukraine

### European Security Architecture Considerations

The NB8 countries have articulated a clear strategic rationale for their support of Ukraine, recognizing that the war's outcome will fundamentally reshape European security. In their February 2025 joint statement, the Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasized that "Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia's war of aggression, to ensure a just and lasting peace. The outcome of the war will have fundamental and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security"[4][6]. This analysis reflects the region's understanding that Ukrainian sovereignty is inextricably linked to broader European security interests, including their own.

### Recognition of the Russian Threat

The Nordic-Baltic perspective on supporting Ukraine is significantly shaped by their assessment of Russia as a direct security threat. During a regional summit in Sweden in November 2024, which included Poland alongside the NB8 countries, participants issued a joint statement identifying Russia as "the most significant and direct threat to our long-term security"[2]. This characterization reflects the region's geographical proximity to Russia and their historical experiences with Russian aggression, providing a strong motivation for their robust support for Ukraine as a frontline state resisting Russian expansionism.

### Peace Through Strength Doctrine

The NB8's approach to achieving peace in Ukraine is firmly grounded in the concept of "peace through strength." Their February 2025 joint statement explicitly mentions that they are "engaging with Ukraine, the United States and all our NATO Allies and EU partners on how to achieve peace through strength"[6]. This doctrine reflects their conviction that meaningful negotiations with Russia can only occur from a position of military advantage and that premature concessions would only reward aggression. The Nordic-Baltic countries have consistently advocated for strong security guarantees for Ukraine and insisted that "Ukraine and Europe must be involved in any negotiations to achieve just and lasting peace"[6][7].

## Forms of Assistance and Recent Initiatives

### Comprehensive Aid Portfolio

The Nordic-Baltic support for Ukraine encompasses a diverse portfolio of assistance types, addressing both immediate battlefield needs and longer-term capacity building. Their aid includes air defense systems, ammunition, increased investment in Ukraine's defense industry, equipment for military units, and comprehensive training programs[1]. This multifaceted approach reflects an understanding that effective support requires addressing various aspects of Ukraine's defense capabilities rather than focusing solely on a single dimension of military assistance.

### Defense Industry Investment

A particularly strategic element of the NB8 countries' support involves investments in Ukraine's indigenous defense industrial capacity. During their November 2024 meeting, the Nordic-Baltic prime ministers and their Polish counterpart pledged to "step up our efforts, including to Ukraine's defence industry and through investments to increase Ukraine's access to ammunition"[2]. This focus on industrial capacity building represents a forward-thinking approach that aims not only to address immediate needs but also to strengthen Ukraine's ability to sustain its own defense production over the longer term.

### Support for Ukraine's Victory Plan

The Nordic-Baltic countries have aligned themselves with Ukraine's strategic vision for ending the conflict. At the November 2024 summit, they expressed support for Ukraine's "Victory Plan," which envisions NATO membership for Ukraine and authorization for long-range strikes against targets inside Russia[2]. This support demonstrates their willingness to embrace more assertive approaches to resolving the conflict, even as some Western partners have shown hesitation about certain elements of Ukraine's proposed strategy.

## The Brigade Initiative and Military Training

### Scalable Brigade Development

One of the most concrete manifestations of the NB8's military support for Ukraine is their joint commitment to equip and train a Ukrainian brigade-sized unit. In February 2025, the Nordic-Baltic countries pledged "to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit"[5]. This initiative represents a significant escalation in the scope and coordination of their military assistance, moving beyond individual weapon systems to the development of an integrated combat formation.

### Equipment and Training Specifics

The brigade initiative includes comprehensive material support and extensive training. According to the joint Nordic-Baltic statement, they aim "to provide substantial military equipment and training for such a unit already in 2025"[5]. The material contributions will include "mechanized infantry materiel and logistical, medical and engineering assets, as well as munitions and spare parts"[5]. The NB8 countries have further committed to a dual-track approach for equipment provision, utilizing "a combination of donations and procurement from Ukrainian industry partners"[5], which reinforces their parallel commitment to developing Ukraine's defense industrial base.

### Integration with NATO Frameworks

The Nordic-Baltic brigade initiative is being developed in coordination with broader NATO efforts. Their joint statement indicates a commitment to "work closely with our Ukrainian partners and the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) moving forward"[5]. This coordination ensures that the NB8's bilateral support complements and enhances multilateral assistance frameworks, avoiding duplication and maximizing effectiveness through integration with NATO's expertise and resources.

## Coordination Through the Stoltenberg Report

### Commission and Scope

In January 2025, the Heads of State and Government of the Nordic and Baltic countries appointed former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to prepare "an independent report with policy recommendations aimed at advancing Nordic-Baltic security and defence cooperation"[8]. This report, scheduled for presentation before the NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025, will include "unified effort in support of Ukraine" as one of its thematic areas[8]. The commission of this report represents a recognition that the region's support for Ukraine can be enhanced through greater coordination and strategic planning.

### Regional Defense Integration Context

The Stoltenberg report comes at a historic moment for Nordic-Baltic security cooperation. As noted by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, "With the Nordic-Baltic region now fully integrated in NATO, we have an opportunity to advance our collaboration even further"[8]. This new potential for enhanced regional cooperation has direct implications for Ukraine support efforts, as improved regional defense integration creates opportunities for more efficient and effective assistance mechanisms. The former NATO Secretary General himself observed that "For the first time in history, all the Nordic and Baltic countries are members of the same military alliance. That brings new opportunities"[8].

### Anticipated Recommendations

While the specific recommendations of the Stoltenberg report remain forthcoming, its focus areas suggest potential directions for enhanced Ukraine support. The report will analyze "how to enhance the regional cooperation to further strengthen the region's deterrence and defence" and will address both military defense and "measures to counter Russian sabotage and other hybrid threats"[8]. These focus areas align closely with Ukraine's current defense needs, suggesting that the report's recommendations could provide a blueprint for more systematic and coordinated Nordic-Baltic assistance to Ukraine in the coming years.

## Future Directions of Nordic-Baltic Support

### Response to Evolving Geopolitical Dynamics

The Nordic-Baltic countries have demonstrated an awareness of shifting geopolitical dynamics and a commitment to adapting their support accordingly. At the November 2024 summit, which took place shortly after Donald Trump's election victory in the United States, participants acknowledged the possibility of reduced American support for Ukraine and expressed readiness to compensate if necessary. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated, "We should have no illusions about the prospects for the coming weeks and months. This means that we in this group, Europe and NATO must be ready, if necessary, to replace some of the support if the US decision is what it looks like today"[2]. This proactive stance indicates that the NB8 countries are prepared to increase their support for Ukraine if transatlantic dynamics shift.

### Increased Defense Investment

The Nordic-Baltic commitment to supporting Ukraine is underpinned by substantial increases in their own defense spending. During the November 2024 summit, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson emphasized that "We all agree here to prioritise defence spending and to provide more funds than the NATO 2% target"[2]. This increased investment enhances the region's capacity to sustain and potentially expand its support for Ukraine while simultaneously strengthening its own deterrence posture against Russia.

### Advocacy for Broader International Support

The NB8 countries have taken on an advocacy role, encouraging other international partners to increase their support for Ukraine. In their statement on the brigade initiative, they explicitly "call upon allies and partners to provide more military support to Ukraine as well"[5]. This reflects their understanding that while their own contributions are substantial, Ukraine's defense needs require a broader international coalition of support. The Nordic-Baltic countries are leveraging their moral authority as leading per-capita contributors to encourage greater commitments from others.

## Conclusion

The Nordic-Baltic Eight have established themselves as stalwart supporters of Ukraine in its existential struggle against Russian aggression. Their comprehensive assistance—spanning financial aid, military equipment, training, defense industry investment, and diplomatic support—represents one of the most substantial regional contributions to Ukraine's defense efforts. Their support is driven by a clear strategic rationale that recognizes the fundamental implications of the war for European security and the direct threat posed by Russia to regional stability.

As the conflict continues and international dynamics evolve, the NB8 countries have demonstrated both consistency in their commitment and flexibility in adapting their support to meet emerging challenges. The forthcoming Stoltenberg report offers an opportunity to further enhance the coordination and effectiveness of their assistance efforts. Throughout this process, the Nordic-Baltic Eight remain united in their conviction that Ukraine must prevail to ensure a just and lasting peace, and they continue to lead by example in providing the support necessary to achieve that outcome.

Sources
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