NB8 Ukraine support over time

# The Evolution of Nordic-Baltic Military Aid to Ukraine: A Strategic Partnership in Times of Crisis

The Nordic-Baltic region has emerged as one of the most steadfast and significant supporters of Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression. As of early 2025, the collective military aid from these nations represents a substantial contribution to Ukraine's defense capabilities, with evolving priorities, coordination mechanisms, and strategic focus. This report examines how the Nordic-Baltic countries' military assistance to Ukraine has developed over time, from initial responses to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea to the comprehensive support packages announced in recent months.

​

## Historical Context and Early Support

### The 2014 Turning Point

The Russian annexation of Crimea and subsequent aggression in eastern Ukraine in 2014 marked a decisive turning point in Nordic-Baltic security cooperation. Prior to 2014, regional defense initiatives like the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) were primarily focused on cost-efficiency and "smart defense" approaches rather than collective security against external threats. As described by defense experts, NORDEFCO had "limited initial success" in its early years but "received a boost after Russia's first invasion of Ukraine in 2014"[5]. 

This watershed moment fundamentally altered the Nordic-Baltic security perspective, with the region's foreign ministers collectively acknowledging they faced "a new normal" with Moscow blatantly disregarding international law[4]. The Russian actions in Ukraine catalyzed "an intensified and upgraded form of cooperation at military and political levels among the five Nordic countries"[4]. What had previously been a practical, economically-driven form of cooperation transformed into a more strategically-oriented alliance focused on addressing new geopolitical realities in the Baltic Sea region.

### Shift in Regional Defense Priorities

The events of 2014 not only strengthened cooperation among Nordic countries but also fundamentally reoriented their defense priorities. As noted by then-incoming Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist shortly after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Nordic countries needed to "assume more responsibility for our own security in our region"[4]. This statement reflected a significant shift in focus from international peacekeeping operations in distant regions to securing the immediate neighborhood against Russian aggression.

This initial period following 2014 saw relatively modest but symbolically important military assistance to Ukraine from Nordic-Baltic countries, primarily focused on non-lethal aid and training. However, the groundwork was being laid for more substantial cooperation that would prove crucial after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

## Response to Full-Scale Invasion

### Immediate Aid Mobilization

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Nordic-Baltic countries responded with unprecedented speed and commitment. The initial response included rapid deployment of military aid packages focusing on urgent battlefield needs. By February 2025, the Nordic-Baltic countries had collectively provided more than 26 billion euros in military, financial, and humanitarian support to Ukraine[1]. This substantial figure underscores the region's extraordinary commitment, particularly considering the relatively modest size of these economies compared to larger European powers.

### Per Capita Leadership in Military Support

A defining characteristic of Nordic-Baltic assistance has been the extraordinary scale of contributions relative to these countries' populations and economies. The region's leaders have consistently highlighted their position as "among the top contributors to Ukraine" and "the largest per capita donors of military assistance to Ukraine"[1][8]. This proportional commitment reflects both the strategic importance these countries place on supporting Ukraine and their assessment of the direct security implications of the conflict for their own region.

Denmark's military assistance to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion has totaled approximately $7.5 billion as of February 2025[6]. Similarly, Norway established the comprehensive Nansen Support Program, providing around €7.5 billion over five years (2023-2027) to support Ukraine through various forms of assistance[10]. By late 2024, the Nordic-Baltic countries had already established themselves as the most significant per-capita supporters of Ukraine's defense efforts globally.

## Strategic Coordination and Enhanced Capabilities

### Formation of Joint Military Initiatives

By late 2024 and early 2025, Nordic-Baltic support for Ukraine evolved from individual country contributions toward more coordinated regional initiatives. A landmark development came in February 2025, when Denmark and Estonia announced they would lead a Nordic-Baltic initiative to train and equip a Ukrainian military brigade[2]. This ambitious project represents a significant escalation in the scope and coordination of military assistance, moving beyond equipment donations to comprehensive unit development.

The brigade initiative includes substantial material support, with Denmark allocating an additional 2 billion Danish kroner (approximately $280 million) partly dedicated to ammunition and building up Ukrainian forces[2]. According to Nordic-Baltic leaders, they pledged "to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit" typically comprising 3,000-5,000 soldiers[7]. This represents a strategic investment in Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities rather than merely addressing immediate tactical needs.

### Focus on Critical Defense Technologies

As the conflict has progressed, Nordic-Baltic military aid has increasingly focused on addressing Ukraine's most critical defense needs, particularly air defense systems and ammunition. In February 2025, the countries pledged "to provide more support to Ukraine, including air defence and ammunition" while also committing to invest in Ukraine's defense industry[1]. 

Sweden's contribution exemplifies this focus on high-priority systems, with the announcement in February 2025 of air defense systems worth 1.2 billion Swedish kroner (over $113 million) as part of a larger aid package worth 13.5 billion Swedish kroner ($1.2 billion)[6]. This emphasis on air defense reflects a sophisticated understanding of Ukraine's battlefield requirements and demonstrates the region's commitment to addressing the most crucial military needs.

### Defense Industry Investment

A forward-thinking element of the Nordic-Baltic approach has been the emphasis on strengthening Ukraine's indigenous defense production capabilities. In November 2024, the Nordic-Baltic prime ministers pledged to "step up our efforts, including to Ukraine's defence industry and through investments to increase Ukraine's access to ammunition"[8]. This focus on industrial capacity building aims to enhance Ukraine's self-sufficiency in defense production.

Norway's announcement in February 2025 that it was planning to use 3.5 billion Norwegian kroner ($315 million) specifically for purchases from the Ukrainian defense industry[7] exemplifies this approach. By investing in Ukraine's defense industrial base rather than simply providing finished products, the Nordic-Baltic countries are helping build sustainable defense capabilities that will benefit Ukraine beyond the immediate conflict.

## Strategic Integration and Future Outlook

### Impact of NATO Enlargement

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023-2024 marked a historic transformation in Nordic-Baltic security architecture, representing "the first time in history, all the Nordic and Baltic countries are members of the same military alliance"[5]. This unprecedented strategic alignment has opened "a new chapter of Nordic-Baltic security and defence cooperation"[5], with significant implications for their collective support to Ukraine.

With all eight countries now unified within the same defense alliance, the potential for deeper coordination of Ukraine support has increased substantially. As Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson noted, "With the Nordic-Baltic region now fully integrated in NATO, we have an opportunity to advance our collaboration even further"[1]. This integration enables more seamless planning and execution of joint military assistance efforts.

### The Stoltenberg Initiative put on hold after he was appointed finance minister

In January 2025, the Heads of State and Government of all eight Nordic and Baltic countries appointed former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to prepare "an independent report with policy recommendations aimed at advancing Nordic-Baltic security and defence cooperation"[1]. Significantly, this report includes "unified effort in support of Ukraine" as one of its key thematic areas, reflecting a recognition that coordinated Nordic-Baltic assistance can maximize impact and efficiency in helping Ukraine defend its sovereignty.

The Stoltenberg report, scheduled for presentation ahead of the NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025, will explore several critical areas of Nordic-Baltic cooperation in support of Ukraine, including "enablement of Allied operations within the NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP) framework, air warfare including Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD), and defense industry and innovation"[1]. This initiative demonstrates the region's commitment to developing more sophisticated and coordinated approaches to supporting Ukraine.

### Strategic Rationale for Continued Support

The Nordic-Baltic commitment to supporting Ukraine is underpinned by a clear strategic assessment that the outcome of the conflict will have profound implications for European security. In their February 2025 joint statement, Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasized that "Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia's war of aggression, to ensure a just and lasting peace. The outcome of the war will have fundamental and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security"[1].

This perspective has been consistently reinforced, with the countries identifying Russia as "the most significant and direct threat to our long-term security"[9] during a regional summit in November 2024. Their support for Ukraine is thus not merely an expression of solidarity but a strategic investment in their own security and the stability of the broader European security architecture.

### Adaptation to Changing Geopolitical Dynamics

The Nordic-Baltic approach to supporting Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable adaptability to evolving geopolitical circumstances. Following Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024, regional leaders acknowledged potential shifts in US policy and expressed readiness to compensate if necessary. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, speaking alongside Nordic-Baltic leaders, stated: "We should have no illusions about the prospects for the coming weeks and months. This means that we in this group, Europe and NATO must be ready, if necessary, to replace some of the support if the US decision is what it looks like today"[9].

This forward-looking stance illustrates how the Nordic-Baltic countries have positioned themselves as a reliable and consistent bloc of support for Ukraine regardless of fluctuations in the broader international environment. Their commitment appears to be driven by strategic calculations about regional security rather than changing political winds.

## Conclusion

The evolution of Nordic-Baltic military aid to Ukraine represents a remarkable trajectory from initial modest responses to the 2014 crisis to the current comprehensive and strategically coordinated support packages. What began as primarily symbolic assistance has transformed into one of the most substantial and sophisticated regional support mechanisms for Ukraine's defense efforts.

The Nordic-Baltic approach is characterized by extraordinary per-capita commitment, strategic focus on critical capabilities like air defense, forward-thinking investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base, and increasingly coordinated implementation mechanisms. The region's unprecedented security integration following Finland and Sweden's NATO accession has further enhanced the potential for effective collective action.

As the conflict continues into its fourth year, the Nordic-Baltic countries have demonstrated both consistency in their fundamental commitment to supporting Ukraine and flexibility in adapting their assistance to evolving battlefield requirements and geopolitical circumstances. The forthcoming Stoltenberg report promises to further strengthen this collective approach, potentially establishing the Nordic-Baltic region as a model for effective regional support to Ukraine and a cornerstone of European security architecture in response to Russian aggression.

Sources
[1] Joint statement of the leaders of Ukraine and Nordic-Baltic Eight on ... https://www.government.se/statements/2025/02/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-ukraine-and-nordic-baltic-eight-on-the-third-anniversary-of-russias-full-scale-aggression-against-ukraine/
[2] Denmark and Estonia lead Nordic-Baltic initiative to train and equip ... https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/24/denmark-and-estonia-lead-nordic-baltic-initiative-to-train-and-equip-ukrainian-brigade/
[3] Nordic and Baltic ministers express strong support for Ukraine https://www.urm.lt/en/news/928/nordic-and-baltic-ministers-express-strong-support-for-ukraine:43704
[4] Back to the Future: Nordefco's First Decade and Prospects for the Next https://sjms.nu/articles/10.31374/sjms.85
[5] Reviving Nordic Security and Defense Cooperation https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/nordic-baltic-defense-cooperation-nato
[6] Nordic countries to provide Ukraine with additional humanitarian ... https://kyivindependent.com/nordic-countries-to-provide-ukraine-with-additional-humanitarian-military-energy-aid/
[7] Nordic, Baltic countries pledge more military aid for Ukraine https://economictimes.com/news/defence/nordic-baltic-countries-pledge-more-military-aid-for-ukraine/articleshow/118533358.cms
[8] Nordic, Baltic leaders agree to increase aid to Ukraine ... - Euractiv https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/nordic-and-baltic-leaders-agree-to-increase-aid-to-ukraine-ahead-of-trumps-comeback/
[9] Nordic-Baltic States, Poland To Increase Military Aid To Ukraine https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-china-denmark-sweden-poland-baltics-norway-undersea-cable/33218161.html
[10] Northern lights: How a Nordic-Baltic coalition of the willing can do ... https://ecfr.eu/publication/northern-lights-how-a-nordic-baltic-coalition-of-the-willing-can-do-even-more-for-ukraine/
[11] Nordic, Baltic countries and Poland to increase support, ammunition ... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-baltic-countries-poland-increase-support-ammunition-ukraine-2024-11-27/
[12] [PDF] Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21st Century: https://atlantkommitten.se/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Karlisnordiska.pdf
[13] N5 and NB8 – Nordic and Nordic-Baltic cooperation on foreign and ... https://www.government.se/government-policy/n5-and-nb8--nordic-and-nordic-baltic-cooperation-on-foreign-and-security-policy/
[14] [PDF] Security Sector Reform: A Nordic - Baltic agenda. - FOI https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--2346--SE
[15] Nordic, Baltic Countries Pledge More Military Aid For Ukraine https://www.barrons.com/articles/nordic-baltic-countries-pledge-more-military-aid-for-ukraine-547ed710
[16] Nordic Council discusses shadow fleets in the Baltic and the ... https://www.norden.org/en/news/nordic-council-discusses-shadow-fleets-baltic-and-invasion-ukraine
[17] About NORDEFCO https://www.nordefco.org/the-basics-about-nordefco
[18] The Baltic (R)evolution in Military Affairs https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/06/the-baltic-revolution-in-military-affairs/
[19] the Nordic Council reiterates its strong support for Ukraine https://www.norden.org/en/news/three-years-invasion-nordic-council-reiterates-its-strong-support-ukraine
[20] Joint statement from the Nordic-Baltic leaders - Government.se https://www.government.se/statements/2025/02/joint-statement-from-the-nordic-baltic-leaders/
Paragraph. Klicka här när du vill redigera.

---