Potential serious consequences for Nordic-Baltic region due to recent US actions

The recent US policy shifts regarding Russia and Ukraine - particularly the pause on offensive cyber operations and halted intelligence sharing - create significant implications for Nordic-Baltic defense cooperation. These developments are likely to accelerate existing trends toward greater regional security cooperation, increased defense investments, and reduced reliance on US security guarantees.

For Nordic-Baltic defense planners, these events underscore the importance of developing more autonomous regional security frameworks while maintaining formal commitment to NATO. The shifts may also necessitate increased investment in cyber defense capabilities, critical infrastructure protection, and measures to counter hybrid threats.

The upcoming Stoltenberg report on Nordic-Baltic security and defense cooperation, expected before the NATO Summit in June 2025, will likely address these new challenges directly. Its recommendations may prove crucial in determining how the region collectively responds to this evolving security environment and potentially reduced US engagement in European security affairs.

# Implications for Nordic-Baltic Defense Following Recent US Policy Shifts

Recent developments in US policy toward Russia and Ukraine have significant implications for the Nordic-Baltic region's security landscape. As of early March 2025, the Trump administration has implemented a series of decisions that potentially reshape the strategic environment for Nordic and Baltic nations. These decisions, including the pause on offensive cyber operations against Russia and halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine, represent a notable shift in US posture with substantial regional consequences.

## Emerging Vulnerabilities in Cyber and Maritime Security

The suspension of US offensive cyber operations against Russia by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth creates immediate security concerns for the Nordic-Baltic region. This pause comes at a particularly sensitive time, as Nordic and Baltic nations have been actively strengthening cooperation to protect critical infrastructure, particularly vulnerable undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea[1][3]. Anne Neuberger, the US Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology, had recently engaged in discussions with Nordic-Baltic counterparts specifically focused on undersea cable security amid ongoing cyber incidents[1].

The timing of these developments is particularly concerning given the increased cyber threat environment. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence had labeled Russia "an enduring global cyber threat" in its 2024 threat assessment, citing cyber espionage, disinformation campaigns, and potential attacks on critical infrastructure in the US and allied nations[4]. With US operations now paused, Nordic-Baltic defense planners must reassess their vulnerability to Russian cyber operations targeting regional critical infrastructure, including the digital networks that connect their economies.

National police forces across the Nordic states have already identified deeper inter-agency collaboration as key to dealing with the sharp rise in cyber attacks against critical public and private IT infrastructure[5]. The recent spate of attacks, including prolonged distributed denial of service (DDoS) strikes against banks in the region, had heightened Nordic concerns over infrastructure resilience. These concerns may now be amplified by the perceived reduction in US cyber deterrence against Russia.

## Accelerating European Strategic Autonomy

The Nordic countries have responded to the deepening conflicts within the NATO alliance with calls for more European military "independence" and rearmament[2]. The recent US policy shifts appear to be accelerating a fundamental reassessment of transatlantic security relationships. Even before these recent developments, the Norwegian Armed Forces' Defence Research Establishment had noted in its 2025 defense update that the US could no longer be considered a secure ally - a significant shift in threat assessment from previous years[2].

Danish public broadcaster DR published a commentary arguing that European military dependence on the US, long held up as an expression of the solid Transatlantic partnership, is now increasingly viewed as a major security and political risk[2]. The article noted that the F-35 fighter jets purchased by Denmark could be rendered inoperable "at the push of a button" in Washington, highlighting the potential vulnerabilities created by dependence on US-controlled defense systems[2].

This recognition of dependency risks has already prompted increased defense spending across the region. In December 2024, the Danish government presented a plan to invest 15 billion kroner (€2 billion) in Arctic defense, specifically new ships, drones and personnel for Danish operations in and around Greenland[2]. Such investments may now be accelerated and refocused on capabilities that enhance regional strategic autonomy.

## Intensified Regional Security Cooperation

The US pause on offensive cyber operations is likely to intensify existing efforts to deepen Nordic-Baltic security cooperation. In January 2025, the Heads of State and Government of the Nordic and Baltic countries appointed former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to prepare an independent report with policy recommendations aimed at advancing Nordic-Baltic security and defense cooperation[7]. The report will primarily focus on military defense, but also measures to counter Russian sabotage and other hybrid threats, with scheduled presentation ahead of the NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025[7].

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden emphasized the new strategic reality, noting: "With the Nordic-Baltic region now fully integrated in NATO, we have an opportunity to advance our collaboration even further. Fully harnessing the new Nordic-Baltic potential for enhanced regional cooperation strengthens both the region and NATO as a whole"[7]. The recent US policy shifts may add urgency to this regional cooperation initiative.

The Nordic-Baltic countries have also been developing new operational frameworks for regional security. In January 2025, NATO initiated the 'Baltic Sentry' operation to bolster the security of critical infrastructure, aiming to strengthen NATO's military presence in the Baltic Sea and enhance the Allies' capacity to respond effectively to destabilizing actions[1]. This operation is being coordinated from a NATO base in Rostock, Germany and notably does not include prominent American involvement[2].

## Heightened Concerns in the Baltic States

Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) appear particularly concerned about the implications of the US policy shifts. People living in Baltic countries have expressed apprehension that they'll be more exposed to pressure from Russia after the US froze military aid to Ukraine[11]. These concerns are particularly acute given the Baltic states' geographical proximity to Russia and their historical experiences.

In a joint statement from February 2025, Nordic-Baltic leaders emphasized: "We stand fully and firmly behind Ukraine. Ukraine must be able to prevail against Russia's war of aggression, to ensure a just and lasting peace. The outcome of the war will have fundamental and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security"[6]. This statement predated the recent US policy shifts but demonstrates the regional commitment to Ukraine's security, which may now necessitate more direct Nordic-Baltic support to compensate for potential reductions in US assistance.

The statement also noted: "We are engaging with Ukraine, the United States and all our NATO Allies and EU partners on how to achieve peace through strength. We fully commit to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine"[6]. Recent US actions may complicate these engagement efforts and push Nordic-Baltic nations to develop more independent approaches to regional security.

## Preparing for Hybrid and Antagonistic Threats

Nordic and Baltic countries have been actively preparing for diverse security challenges beyond conventional military threats. NordForsk, a Nordic research funding organization, announced in January 2025 a call focusing on funding research contributing to increased knowledge about antagonistic threats and societal security[10]. Their announcement noted: "Nordic and Baltic countries must be prepared for different types of concomitant challenges and disasters, such as hybrid attacks, organised crime and terrorist actions, wartime situations and the consequences of military actions on societies"[10].

The announcement specifically highlighted that "the boundaries between civil security and state security are blurring and changing, which is evident in grey areas like hybrid threats, cyber-attacks, influence operations and disinformation"[10]. With the US pause on offensive cyber operations, these concerns become even more relevant, potentially requiring accelerated investment in both defensive capabilities and resilience measures.

In November 2024, Nordic and Baltic Ministers of Digitalisation issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of enhanced cooperation concerning underwater infrastructure for electronic communication[3]. The ministers stated: "The security situation in our neighbourhood is serious. In a time of geopolitical change, robustness, resilience and redundancy in subsea communication cable systems that connect our countries is essential"[3]. The recent US policy shifts may prompt more concrete and urgent action to implement these cooperation measures.

## Conclusion

The recent US policy shifts regarding Russia and Ukraine - particularly the pause on offensive cyber operations and halted intelligence sharing - create significant implications for Nordic-Baltic defense cooperation. These developments are likely to accelerate existing trends toward greater regional security cooperation, increased defense investments, and reduced reliance on US security guarantees.

For Nordic-Baltic defense planners, these events underscore the importance of developing more autonomous regional security frameworks while maintaining formal commitment to NATO. The shifts may also necessitate increased investment in cyber defense capabilities, critical infrastructure protection, and measures to counter hybrid threats.

The upcoming Stoltenberg report on Nordic-Baltic security and defense cooperation, expected before the NATO Summit in June 2025, will likely address these new challenges directly. Its recommendations may prove crucial in determining how the region collectively responds to this evolving security environment and potentially reduced US engagement in European security affairs.

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