Germany's Nuclear Policy Rethink (both civilian and military): Fact-Checking Recent Developments

In light of recent geopolitical shifts, Germany's approach to nuclear matters—both in terms of defense and energy—has undergone significant reevaluation. The article by Thorsten Benner titled "Germany Is Rethinking Everything Nuclear" makes several claims about Germany's evolving stance on nuclear weapons, particularly in response to concerns about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees under President Donald Trump. This compilation expands on the issue based on available German-language sources.

The Shifting Political Landscape and Nuclear Security Concerns

Friedrich Merz, the designated next Chancellor of Germany, has indeed expressed serious concerns about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees under President Trump. Multiple sources confirm that Merz believes Germany and Europe must prepare for a scenario where Trump does not fully uphold NATO's mutual defense commitments. As reported by German news outlet t-online, Merz stated that "Das Schicksal Europas sei den Amerikanern weitgehend gleichgültig, deshalb müsse man Schritt für Schritt Unabhängigkeit erreichen von den USA" (Europe's fate is largely irrelevant to Americans, therefore one must achieve independence from the USA step by step)[3].

This perspective represents a significant departure from outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's approach. While Scholz maintained that Germany should not decouple from American security guarantees, Merz has been more forthright about the need for European autonomy in security matters. The tagesschau reports that Scholz consistently stated "Wir werden nicht zustimmen zu einer Lösung, die zu einer Entkopplung der europäischen und der amerikanischen Sicherheit führt" (We will not agree to any solution that leads to a decoupling of European and American security)[7].

## Germany's Nuclear Umbrella: Current Status and Potential Changes

The article states that Germany hosts approximately 20 U.S. B-61 nuclear bombs at the Büchel airbase as part of NATO's nuclear sharing arrangement. ARD's Panorama magazine reports: "Derzeit lagern Schätzungen zufolge 20 US-Atombomben im Fliegerhorst Büchel in Rheinland-Pfalz, dies im Rahmen des Konzepts der 'Nuklearen Teilhabe' innerhalb der NATO" (Currently, an estimated 20 US atomic bombs are stored at the Büchel airbase in Rhineland-Palatinate as part of the concept of 'nuclear sharing' within NATO)[4].

The nuclear sharing arrangement operates under what tagesschau describes as the "Prinzip der zwei Schlüssel" (two-key principle), where both the American president and the German government must approve any use of these weapons[7]. German combat aircraft would carry the bombs to their targets in case of deployment.

## Public Opinion Shift on Nuclear Weapons

Benner's article reports a significant shift in German public opinion regarding nuclear weapons. According to Panorama magazine, in mid-2021, only 14% of Germans supported having nuclear weapons on German soil, with 57% favoring their removal. However, by 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this had dramatically changed, with 52% supporting either maintaining (40%) or increasing (12%) U.S. nuclear weapons in Germany[4].

More recent polling continues to show evolving attitudes. A March 2025 Forsa poll for Stern magazine found that 64% of Germans oppose developing a German nuclear bomb, while 31% support it—a 4% increase in support compared to February 2024[14]. Regional differences are notable, with 78% of East Germans opposed to German nuclear weapons compared to 61% of West Germans.

## Merz's European Nuclear Sharing Initiative

A central claim of Benner's article is that Merz has proposed discussions with France and the UK about European nuclear sharing. This is well-supported by multiple sources. T-online reports: "CDU-Chef Friedrich Merz will mit Frankreich und Großbritannien darüber reden, wie deren Atomwaffen verstärkt in den Schutz Europas eingebunden werden können" (CDU leader Friedrich Merz wants to talk with France and Great Britain about how their nuclear weapons can be more integrated into the protection of Europe)[1].

In a Deutschlandfunk interview, Merz stated: "Nukleare Teilhabe ist ein Thema, über das wir reden müssen" (Nuclear sharing is a topic we need to talk about)[1]. He has consistently emphasized that such arrangements would supplement rather than replace the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

French President Emmanuel Macron has responded favorably to Merz's proposals. ZDF reports that Macron answered "auf den historischen Aufruf des zukünftigen deutschen Kanzlers" (to the historical call of the future German Chancellor) and declared that the "strategische Debatte" (strategic debate) is now "eröffnet" (opened)[10]. This marks a significant shift, as previous German leaders, including Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz, had reportedly ignored Macron's earlier offers to engage in strategic dialogue on nuclear deterrence.

## Germany's Constitutional Constraints on Nuclear Weapons

Benner notes that Germany pursuing its own nuclear weapons is not currently being considered. Merz has been unequivocal on this point, stating: "Deutschland wird nicht selbst über Atomwaffen verfügen können und dürfen" (Germany will not be able to and will not be allowed to have its own nuclear weapons)[1]. He specifically cites the Two-plus-Four Treaty that enabled German reunification, which includes Germany's explicit renunciation of nuclear weapons possession[1][5].

Legal experts quoted in t-online also point out the practical difficulties of any clandestine nuclear program: "Niemand hat es jemals geschafft, genug Material für eine Bombe herzustellen, ohne entdeckt zu werden. Und jetzt ist es noch viel schwieriger, weil die Geheimdienst- und Überwachungstechnologien viel ausgefeilter sind" (No one has ever managed to produce enough material for a bomb without being detected. And now it's much more difficult because intelligence and surveillance technologies are much more sophisticated)[13].

## The Nuclear Power Dimension

While Benner's article suggests Germany should recommit to civilian nuclear research, the search results provide limited information on Merz's specific position on nuclear energy research. We do know that Merz has called Germany's nuclear phase-out "Irrsinn" (insanity)[11], indicating his disagreement with the country's exit from nuclear power.

The article notes that Merz and Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder visited the Isar 2 nuclear power plant in August 2022. During this visit, they advocated for extending the operational lifespan of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants beyond their scheduled December 2022 shutdown. Söder stated, "Es ist jetzt endlich Zeit zu handeln" (It is finally time to act now)[9], while Merz emphasized the urgency: "wenn wir im September sind, wird es kritisch. Wenn wir an Weihnachten sind, ist es unmöglich" (if we are in September, it will be critical. If we are at Christmas, it is impossible)[9].

## Conclusion: The Path Forward for European Nuclear Deterrence

Benner's article seem to capture Germany's evolving nuclear discussions, though some specific details and quotes cannot be verified from the provided sources. The core premise—that Germany is rethinking its nuclear policies in light of concerns about U.S. reliability—is well-supported by German-language reporting.

The prospect of a European nuclear umbrella faces significant challenges. As ZDF reports, this would involve complex arrangements regarding command, control, and financial burden-sharing[10]. Furthermore, the stability of European nuclear powers is not guaranteed; Stern magazine notes that Marine Le Pen, who opposes shared nuclear deterrence, has stated: "Unsere nukleare Abschreckung zu teilen, bedeutet, sie abzuschaffen" (Sharing our nuclear deterrence means abolishing it)[16].

While Germany grapples with these complex security questions, Merz appears committed to pursuing European solutions while maintaining hopeful pragmatism about transatlantic relations—preparing for the worst while hoping for the best in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.

## References[1] t-online.de, "Atombombe in Deutschland: Das sagt CDU-Chef Friedrich Merz," March 9, 2025.[3] Morgenpost, "Zweifel an USA: Macht Deutschland Atombomben-Deal mit Macron?," March 2, 2025.[4] tagesschau.de, "Umfrage: Erstmals Mehrheit für Atomwaffen in Deutschland," June 2, 2022.[5] YouTube, "Merz will mehr Atomwaffen in Deutschland! Gespräch mit Starmer und Macron geplant," March 10, 2025.[7] tagesschau.de, "Atomare Abschreckung: Wer schützt Europa im Ernstfall?," March 9, 2025.[9] Süddeutsche Zeitung, "Söder und Merz besuchen Isar 2: Zwei Männer, eine Botschaft," August 4, 2022.[10] ZDF, "Europas atomare Abschreckung: Kann Frankreich Schutzschirm?," March 6, 2025.[11] World Nuclear Report, "Warum die Atomkraft-Träume der Union völlig unrealistisch sind," December 19, 2024.[13] Merkur, "Atomdebatte in Deutschland: Stimmung schlägt in unerwartete Richtung," March 11, 2025.[14] Stern, "Eine deutsche Atombombe? Wie die Bürger darüber denken," March 10, 2025.[16] t-online.de, "EU: US-Schutzschirm gilt nicht mehr – braucht Europa Nuklearwaffen?," March 8, 2025.

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