Peace in Ukraine - Summary of the debate concerning a possible Trump "reverse Nixon-strategy"

The "reverse Nixon" strategy by some sources represents a potentially significant reorientation of American foreign policy during Trump 2 (he has repeatedly expressed this objective) with far-reaching implications. While there may be a deliberate strategy at work rather than merely erratic decision-making, the approach faces considerable challenges given the fundamental differences between today's geopolitical landscape and that of 1972.

For European allies, particularly those in Eastern Europe, this strategy creates troubling uncertainties. If the United States calculates that cooperation with Russia against China outweighs its traditional NATO commitments, the security architecture that has underpinned European stability for decades could be at risk. This possibility demands careful consideration from European policymakers, who may need to develop more autonomous security capabilities and diplomatic strategies to navigate this shifting landscape.

The resumption of US aid to Ukraine alongside ceasefire negotiations demonstrates the complex and sometimes contradictory nature of this approach. They may be seen  as part of a multifaceted pressure campaign combining both military and diplomatic elements to achieve broader strategic objectives.

Trump's "Reverse Nixon" Strategy: A Geopolitical Analysis of US-Russia-China Relations

The concept of a "reverse Nixon" strategy by Donald Trump has emerged as a significant topic in the public debate in recent days. The compilation below seeks to map how this approach might be reshaping international relations, particularly regarding Russia, China, Ukraine, and NATO allies.

The Reverse Nixon Strategy and Its Historical Context

The term "reverse Nixon" references the historical diplomatic maneuver orchestrated by Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger in 1972, when the United States established relations with China to isolate the Soviet Union. Today's "reverse Nixon" strategy involves the opposite approach: improving relations with Russia to isolate China[1][3]. Vijay Prashad argues that Trump's approach is not merely "idiosyncratic flailing" but a deliberate strategy to befriend Russia with the aim of concentrating American firepower against China, which is perceived as the greater threat to US global dominance[3].

Henry Kissinger's original strategy recognized that preventing an alliance between the Soviet Union and China was essential for Western power. The Nixon administration exploited the Sino-Soviet dispute to drive a wedge between these Eurasian powers[3]. Trump's current approach similarly aims to fracture the growing alliance between Russia and China, though in reverse fashion. The administration appears motivated by the belief that China, not Russia, represents the existential threat to American hegemony[3].

Elbridge Colby, Trump's nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, has explicitly argued that America's focus on Ukraine has weakened its capacity to address China's rising threats. He warns that if China dominates Asia and expands globally, it could endanger "our jobs, our freedoms, and ultimately our security," suggesting the US should shift resources away from Ukraine to better confront China[1].

Russia's Value Beyond the Ukrainian Conflict

While Ukraine's mineral resources have been directly targeted by Trump as a condition for continued support[4], Russia's strategic value extends far beyond this immediate consideration. Even in its weakened post-Soviet state, Russia adds significant weight to Chinese power and geopolitical reach. Russia provides critical military technology, including jet engines for Chinese fighters (as China's domestic engines remain unreliable), offers polar access via Arctic ports, railway connections to Western Europe through Kazakhstan and Moscow, and overland routes to Iran and the Middle East[10].

Perhaps most significantly, Russia's vast territory positioned between China and Western powers serves a critical strategic function. In a potential conflict scenario, this territory would provide China with a buffer similar to how the Pacific Ocean functions for the United States[10]. This geographical advantage alone arguably makes Russia an extraordinarily valuable partner for China and a prize worth pursuing for American strategists.

Strategic Patterns and Diplomatic Pressure

The Trump administration has demonstrated a pattern of actions consistent with this "reverse Nixon" approach. The administration has indicated a desire to rapidly resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict through significant policy changes, including high-level meetings between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia and Trump's criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky[1]. The recent temporary suspension of military aid to Ukraine[6], followed by its resumption alongside ceasefire negotiations[7], mirrors classic diplomatic pressure tactics.

This oscillation between increasing military pressure and simultaneously conducting negotiations aligns with historical "standard practice" in American and Soviet/Russian foreign policy. The pattern resembles approaches used during conflicts like Vietnam, where military pressure and diplomatic outreach occurred concurrently[5]. The recent eight-hour meeting in Saudi Arabia that resulted in Ukraine agreeing to a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire[13] could be interpreted as part of this broader strategy rather than a shift away from it.

Challenges to the Strategy's Success

Despite the apparent strategic logic, several experts question whether this "reverse Nixon" approach can succeed in the current geopolitical landscape. The original Nixon-Kissinger gambit occurred when China was weak, isolated, and fearful of war with the Soviet Union. Today's China is a global power with substantial economic and military might, sharing strong ties with Russia[8].

China's leadership has expressed confidence that Trump cannot drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated explicitly that the close relationship between Russia and China is not at risk regardless of what Trump does[2]. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, notes that Russia "will definitely portray to Trump that they want to have space and distance from China," but in reality, Moscow views Beijing as a consistent and reliable partner compared to the unpredictability of US leadership subject to electoral cycles[8].

Russia's current economic dependency on China further complicates the strategy. China has helped Russia circumvent Western sanctions by purchasing Russian energy and agricultural products while supplying Russia with essential goods ranging from electronics to machinery. This economic lifeline makes it extraordinarily difficult for the US to separate these nations[1].

## Implications for NATO and European Security

Perhaps most concerning for European allies is how this strategy might affect NATO solidarity. Trump has made alarming statements regarding the alliance, once claiming he would "encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want" to NATO members that fail to meet defense spending guidelines[9]. This rhetoric raises serious questions about US commitment to collective defense under Article 5, the cornerstone of the alliance.

The approach creates a precarious situation for Western Europe. If the United States begins to vacillate between NATO loyalty and cooperation with Russia, European nations could find themselves in an extremely vulnerable position during a crisis[9]. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that such suggestions "undermine all of our security, including that of the US, and put American and European soldiers at increased risk"[9].

Sources
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