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Nordic-Baltic cooperation on defence and security.

Potential serious consequences for Nordic-Baltic region due to recent US actions

3/7/2025

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The recent US policy shifts regarding Russia and Ukraine - particularly the pause on offensive cyber operations and halted intelligence sharing - create significant implications for Nordic-Baltic defense cooperation. These developments are likely to accelerate existing trends toward greater regional security cooperation, increased defense investments, and reduced reliance on US security guarantees.

For Nordic-Baltic defense planners, these events underscore the importance of developing more autonomous regional security frameworks while maintaining formal commitment to NATO. The shifts may also necessitate increased investment in cyber defense capabilities, critical infrastructure protection, and measures to counter hybrid threats.

The upcoming Stoltenberg report on Nordic-Baltic security and defense cooperation, expected before the NATO Summit in June 2025, will likely address these new challenges directly. Its recommendations may prove crucial in determining how the region collectively responds to this evolving security environment and potentially reduced US engagement in European security affairs.


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The Evolution of Swedish Support to Ukraine: From Early Partnerships to Comprehensive Assistance

3/4/2025

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The Evolution of Swedish Support to Ukraine: From Early Partnerships to Comprehensive AssistanceSweden's relationship with Ukraine has transformed dramatically over the past decade, evolving from modest developmental cooperation to one of the most substantial per-capita support packages globally. This report examines the progression of Swedish assistance to Ukraine, highlighting key milestones, strategic shifts, and the increasing scale and sophistication of Sweden's commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and defense.
Historical Foundations and Early SupportSweden's involvement with Ukraine predates the current conflict, establishing a foundation upon which later support would build. Since 1995, Sweden has invested significant political, financial, and human resources in Ukraine, developing a partnership focused primarily on reform cooperation. During the period from 2014 to 2020, Sweden's reform cooperation with Ukraine amounted to approximately 175 million euros, positioning Sweden as the seventh largest international donor to Ukraine at that time10.
The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine marked the first significant shift in the nature of Sweden's support. This watershed moment prompted Sweden to recalibrate its approach from primarily development-oriented assistance to more security-focused cooperation. During this initial period following Russia's first invasion, Sweden's military assistance remained relatively modest, predominantly focused on non-lethal aid and reform support.

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Sammanfattning på svenska

3/4/2025

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Nordisk-baltiskt samarbete spelar en betydande roll i att hantera hybridhot och stödja Ukraina.
Hantering av hybridhot:
  • Den nordisk-baltiska regionen fokuserar på att motverka hybridhot, inklusive ryskt sabotage och desinformationskampanjer.
  • Nordiska länder har utvecklat initiativ för "totalförsvar" och "omfattande säkerhet" för att stärka samhällets motståndskraft mot fientliga åtgärder och hybridkrigföring, vilket kan komplettera en regional försvarsstrategi.
  • Genom att stärka deltagandet i EU:s energi- och infrastrukturprojekt med de baltiska staterna kan nordiska länder bidra till att exportera motståndskraft till Östersjöregionen och samtidigt koppla samman infrastruktur mellan allierade och frikoppla från motståndare.
  • Genom att dela expertis och bästa praxis för att motverka hybridhot kan de nordiska och baltiska länderna kollektivt stärka sin motståndskraft mot ryska informationsoperationer, cyberattacker, ekonomisk tvång och sabotage.
Stöd till Ukraina:
  • Nordisk-baltiska länder har legat i framkant när det gäller internationellt stöd till Ukraina efter Rysslands invasion.
  • Nordisk-baltiska ledare har beskrivit sina länder som några av de största bidragsgivarna per capita av militärt bistånd till Ukraina och har lovat att ytterligare stärka detta stöd.
  • De nordisk-baltiska länderna anser att Ukraina måste segra mot Rysslands anfallskrig för att säkerställa en rättvis och varaktig fred, eftersom krigets utgång kommer att ha grundläggande och långvariga effekter på den europeiska och transatlantiska säkerheten.
  • Stoltenberg-rapporten inkluderar "samordnade insatser till stöd för Ukraina" som ett av sina tematiska områden, vilket återspeglar ett erkännande av att samordnat nordisk-baltiskt bistånd kan maximera effekten och effektiviteten i att hjälpa Ukraina att försvara sin suveränitet.

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NB8 Ukraine support over time

3/4/2025

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# The Evolution of Nordic-Baltic Military Aid to Ukraine: A Strategic Partnership in Times of Crisis

The Nordic-Baltic region has emerged as one of the most steadfast and significant supporters of Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression. As of early 2025, the collective military aid from these nations represents a substantial contribution to Ukraine's defense capabilities, with evolving priorities, coordination mechanisms, and strategic focus. This report examines how the Nordic-Baltic countries' military assistance to Ukraine has developed over time, from initial responses to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea to the comprehensive support packages announced in recent months.

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Ukraine support overview

3/4/2025

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This report analyses the comprehensive support provided to Ukraine by the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) countries, comprising Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden. It highlights their unprecedented financial commitment, amounting to billions of euros, and their leading position as per capita contributors to Ukraine's defence. The report examines the strategic rationale behind this support, emphasizing the NB8's view of Ukraine's sovereignty as integral to European security and their assessment of Russia as a direct threat. Furthermore, it details the various forms of assistance offered, including military equipment, training, and investments in Ukraine's defence industry, and addresses future directions for sustained and coordinated aid, with the aim of ensuring a just and lasting peace.Paragraph.

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Key sources

3/4/2025

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Key Sources for Information about Nordic-Baltic Defense and Security Cooperation

The Nordic-Baltic region has emerged as a significant security actor in Europe, with all eight countries now united as NATO members following Sweden and Finland's accession. This comprehensive integration has created new opportunities for enhanced regional cooperation. This report examines the key sources of information regarding Nordic-Baltic defense and security cooperation, highlighting official government resources, research institutions, cooperation frameworks, and recent developments that shape the regional security landscape.
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Government and Official Institutional SourcesNational Government Websites and MinistriesGovernment websites of Nordic and Baltic countries serve as primary sources for official statements, press releases, and policy documents regarding regional defense cooperation. The Swedish Government's website provides comprehensive information on Sweden's role in the Nordic-Baltic security architecture and hosts important announcements about regional initiatives1. Similarly, the Norwegian Government's website features detailed news stories and policy statements regarding Norway's engagement with Nordic-Baltic security cooperation2.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania maintains dedicated pages on Nordic-Baltic cooperation (NB8), providing historical context, evolution, and current frameworks of collaboration. Their resources explain how the cooperation format transformed from what was initially called the "5+3" format (five Nordic countries plus three Baltic states) to the current NB8 structure after the August 2000 ministerial meeting11. This source is particularly valuable for understanding the institutional development of regional cooperation.

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Timeline

3/4/2025

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Timeline of Key Events in Nordic-Baltic Security Cooperation
  • 1948: Attempt to form a Nordic defence union falters.
  • 1949: Norway, Denmark, and Iceland become founding members of NATO. Sweden and Finland pursue policies of neutrality.
  • Early 1990s: The Baltic states regain independence, opening a new chapter in regional cooperation.
  • December 1990: The first Nordic-Baltic Foreign Ministers' meeting is held in Copenhagen, establishing the "5+3" format (five Nordic countries plus three Baltic states).
  • 2000: The "5+3" collaboration is formalised as the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8), an informal regional cooperation format encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden.
  • 2004: EU and NATO enlargements see the Baltic states join both organisations, deepening NB8 cooperation considerably. NATO begins Baltic Air Policing missions.
  • 2008: Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) is established to enhance defence collaboration among Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.
  • 2010: At the initiative of the Baltic states, the Nordic and Baltic foreign ministers establish a "wise-men" group to explore ways to strengthen Nordic-Baltic cooperation.
  • 2011: The Birkavs-Gade report, resulting from the "wise-men" group, is approved, providing practical guidelines for regional development across multiple domains.
  • 2014: The Russian annexation of Crimea marks a turning point, intensifying security cooperation in the region. NORDEFCO receives a boost.
  • 2020: All NORDEFCO Cooperation Areas have established some degree of collaboration with Baltic colleagues, and Baltic representatives are integrated into several Working Groups.
  • November 2024: Sweden signs bilateral agreements on deepening defence cooperation with Lithuania and Poland. Nordic defence ministers sign a joint Letter of Intent on expanded cooperation to develop strategic corridors for military transport in the Nordic region.
  • January 2025: The Heads of State and Government of the Nordic and Baltic countries appoint former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to prepare an independent report with policy recommendations aimed at advancing Nordic-Baltic security and defence cooperation. NATO launches the 'Baltic Sentry' initiative to strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region.
  • February 2025: Jens Stoltenberg is appointed as Norway's Finance Minister, creating uncertainty regarding the timely completion of the report. Nordic-Baltic leaders issue a joint statement pledging to further bolster their support for Ukraine.
  • July 2024: The Nordic countries entered into an agreement to promote access to Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden's airspace for NATO's air operations.
  • June 2025 (Expected): Stoltenberg report scheduled to be presented ahead of the NATO Summit in The Hague.
  • End of 2025 (Expected): NATO's Joint Force Command Norfolk achieves full operational capacity, and Finland and Sweden are incorporated into defence plan North-West together with Denmark, Iceland, and Norway.
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The Stoltenberg report

3/4/2025

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The document outlines the status of a report on Nordic-Baltic security cooperation, commissioned by the leaders of those eight nations and to be prepared by Jens Stoltenberg. The report is intended to provide policy recommendations for strengthening regional defence and deterrence, with a focus on military cooperation and countering hybrid threats. The unexpected appointment of Stoltenberg as Norway's Finance Minister raises questions about the report's completion, but the document argues that, given its strategic importance and the approaching NATO Summit, the initiative is likely still underway, perhaps with adjustments to Stoltenberg's involvement. The report is set to address critical areas, such as support for Ukraine, integrated air and missile defence, technological innovation, and societal resilience.

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General briefing on nordic-Baltic cooperation

3/4/2025

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This document provides an overview of Nordic-Baltic defence and security cooperation, highlighting its evolution, institutional frameworks, key areas, and strategic significance, particularly after Finland and Sweden's NATO accession. It examines how the eight nations, now united within NATO, are working together to enhance regional deterrence against Russia and strengthen the Alliance's northeastern flank. The text details the roles of NORDEFCO and NB8, the importance of joint military exercises, and cooperation in areas such as critical infrastructure protection and countering hybrid threats. Finally, the document addresses the challenges and future prospects of this collaboration, including balancing regional and NATO frameworks, managing resource constraints, and improving military mobility.

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    Compilation of sources 

    This compilation is partly done using AI language models seeking to factcheck as much as possible and including sources. Reservation for possible errors.

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