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Zooming out on Migration, migrant smuggling, trafficking and security -  my own reflections

January 15, 2016 On the topic of underage male migrants to Sweden.

When I search on the internet I note  that this issue has been raised in the public debate in Sweden at least since the summer of 2015 - that is well before the last surge in September-October. 

Below some of my more general thoughts - which perhaps naively - mainly focus on the source of the problem rather than on what we do when it has reached Sweden. I have tried to generate interest for these more general problems at least for the last year and have written a few things of relevance in particular from the perspective of drugs trafficking since 2012. 

I assume without being an expert that a large part of the problem has to do with Afghan young men who claim to be underage and who systematically get rid of documentation either by their own initiative or at the order of traffickers. 

This is one problem out of many (including of course drugs) associated with trafficking from Afghanistan which at least I have been aware of for some time. 

My assumption since almost ten years is that this is not voluntary migration but a form of migrant smuggling which to a large extent is directed by organized crime or at least systematically exploited by organized crime. The family (which might be in debt to organized crime) has an interest in sending the young men out of the country, often the family as a whole is already in Iran with temporary Iranian identification cards (http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4846b2062.pdf)

The boys are then sent on to see how and when it is possible to get the rest of the family to Europe. Staying underage throughout the journey is essential I understand already because of the simple fact that being underage when smuggling drugs saves you from capital punishment in Iran. The link to the heroin trafficking is not well documented however - the proportion of Afghans arrested in Europe is low.  

As for the public debate in Sweden the attempts that I have made myself on Facebook and Twitter to generate more public discussion about trafficking and migrant smuggling as an aspect of transnational organized crime has so far not been successful.

There are relatively large special interest groups on the internet dealing with human trafficking and drugs. But they are often focussing on a specific goal, for instance legalization of sex work or certain types of drugs. To get an overall picture on an international level is not something most people seem to prioritize. Most people indeed seem to like to see this discussion from the perspectives of victims - the notion that migrants could be under the influence of organized crime has not been a popular discourse.

I think we need to look at the whole ever more complicated picture at the source. The point is that underage males coming to Sweden of course remain victims of fragility and/or organised crime  even if they cheat about their age. 

From the handbook on EU and security:

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Look in the handbook!

An increasingly complex and divisive debate:

THE EU strategic review treats migration as a major new topic for external action. It is mentioned 31 times in the document in comparison to not at all in the European security strategy from 2003. Some key passages:

EU development days on refugees and internally displaced persons:

Sahel leaders mostly silent

Migration must remain a good flow - for that to happen a comprehensive approach is urgently needed!

Criticism in the media for the EU response as being insufficient and shortsighted.

Great clarity from ECFR:

two words about trafficking and the balloon effect: lets not be naive - we have to work on the international level together

Mycket informativt och balanserat:

The missing migrants project by IOM

NYT map on refugee incidents 

Swedish labour agency recommends high migratory flow to keep social services - link to full report when clicking on image. 

organigram new dg Migration and home affairs 

from the twitter feed: pressure on EU:s Southern flank - Tusk cautious 

new funding on the eu level - and stricter uk plans 

Migration flows