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— On security/Lundin (@londil) September 18, 2017
Will Brexit result be good for the UK?
— The Int'l Spectator (@intlspectator) June 24, 2016
Today is not least the day of #Brexit. The British prime minister has already signed the letter announcing Article 50.
Who needs Netflix and the House of Cards these days? Reality is equally thrilling.
This will not be an easy process for the UK domestically of course, as many have reported from different parts of the UK.
The notion that there will be a straightforward negotiation between an EU team led by Mr Barnier and whoever will be on the lead on the UK side is however also an oversimplification, to say the least.
There will be many bilateral negotiations where the UK will try to capitalise on its leverage notably on security where the UK not only is an indispensable net contributor but will need to stay fully involved also in its own interest.
Sir Julian King is as the UK counterterrorism Commissioner for another two years already quite busy in paving the way for future Security Union cooperation with the UK, no doubt.
Enormous skill will also be necessary in order to find a new format for cooperation between the EU and the UK on security outside the NATO framework. Because also the Brits are highly worried about the lack of predictability of US policy.
It will require considerable creativity because informal arrangements may not be enough. And UK even less than Turkey can accept being an associate member called in after the EU meetings are over to be told about the line to take.
Bilateral talks are already underway between Paris, Berlin and London on how to achieve this. France has its bilateral Lancaster House agreement with the UK. Germany is also looking for something upon which to build future cooperation. But bilateral ties will not be enough, for the EU nor for the UK. Whether there will be a totally new format combining cooperation on the basis of extended permanent structured cooperation in the EU remains to be seen.
Expect considerable strain, confusion and disinformation.
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Just as a start:
My earlier Brexit-related polls - illustrating the need to constantly test our assumptions!
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Four earlier #Brexit-related polls over the year so far
The Guardian on the impact of a looming Brexit on European peace. Read here
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UK and EU in context - a basis for contingency planning
On Brexit - what would Churchill have said?
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The observer on the UK and the EU - not a bad summary of the need for an EU comprehensive approach to security
click on the text to get to the article
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FAZ on Junckers visit to Cameron
Click on text to get to the FAZ article
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Look in the handbook!
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Zakaria in Washington post: |
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