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If you wish to support my work in a very simple - and cost-free way - follow my courses on a trial basis. This helps me - hopefully also you https://t.co/JVqgR3EWkb

— On security/Lundin (@londil) September 18, 2017

UK and the EU
​Brexit in real time 

Read Georgios Katakouzinos' answer to On balance, does Brexit increase or decrease support for the EU in Europe? on Quora
Tweets about United Kingdom EU
#Brexit Tweets

Will Brexit result be good for the UK?

— The Int'l Spectator (@intlspectator) June 24, 2016
Brexit revisited

Today is not least the day of #Brexit. The British prime minister has already signed the letter announcing Article 50.

Who needs Netflix and the House of Cards these days? Reality is equally thrilling.

This will not be an easy process for the UK domestically of course, as many have reported from different parts of the UK. 

The notion that there will be a straightforward negotiation between an EU team led by Mr Barnier and whoever will be on the lead on the UK side is however also an oversimplification, to say the least. 

There will be many bilateral negotiations where the UK will try to capitalise on its leverage notably on security where the UK not only is an indispensable net contributor but will need to stay fully involved also in its own interest.

Sir Julian King is as the UK counterterrorism Commissioner for another two years already quite busy in paving the way for future Security Union cooperation with the UK, no doubt.

Enormous skill will also be necessary in order to find a new format for cooperation between the EU and the UK on security outside the NATO framework. Because also the Brits are highly worried about the lack of predictability of US policy.

It will require considerable creativity because informal arrangements may not be enough. And UK even less than Turkey can accept being an associate member called in after the EU meetings are over to be told about the line to take.

Bilateral talks are already underway between Paris, Berlin and London on how to achieve this. France has its bilateral Lancaster House agreement with the UK. Germany is also looking for something upon which to build future cooperation. But bilateral ties will not be enough, for the EU nor for the UK. Whether there will be a totally new format combining cooperation on the basis of extended permanent structured cooperation in the EU remains to be seen.
​
Expect considerable strain, confusion and disinformation.

Brexit

So you think we should just wait? Learn more about ways forward on Brexit, EU and Europe! https://t.co/0u9PEG3fxb pic.twitter.com/Q2CC0BejMM

— On security/Lundin (@londil) August 6, 2016

What better time to do contingency planning and staying calm and constructive? https://t.co/QFNkgLKWSM pic.twitter.com/XWxyobvKdW

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 24, 2016

End of Theresa May’s media affair – POLITICO https://t.co/jmtKYFBdv0

— On security/Lundin (@londil) September 13, 2016

New Publication: "China and Brexit: what's in it for us?" https://t.co/Vaq5RtW3ck @ECFRAsiaChina pic.twitter.com/iEdN4j3UK3

— ECFR Madrid (@ECFRMadrid) September 12, 2016

Ideas of more integrated EU defense have longed been around. Will Brexit be the gamechanger? Still many MS skeptical https://t.co/e1OpcJ1TKf

— Erik Brattberg (@ErikBrattberg) September 12, 2016

And #Trump ... John Lanchester · Brexit Blues · LRB 28 July 2016 https://t.co/U5WLHdCdY2 pic.twitter.com/3fujImFkog

— On security/Lundin (@londil) July 23, 2016

Poll: When do you consider that the UK should notify the EU of its decision to leave?

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 25, 2016

Poll: Vital first step to safeguard security, economy and democracy after Brexit decision

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 25, 2016

Poll: After #Brexit - how long time to get the European act together in response to ongoing/future crises?

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 24, 2016

BREXIT: Markets

- Pound down 10% against Dollar
- Down 15% against Yen
- American stock futures plunge
- Oil down 6%
- Gold up 7%

— The Int'l Spectator (@intlspectator) June 24, 2016

‘Brexit’ Collateral Damage Puts Japan in Hot Seat - WSJ https://t.co/2FvKVAPAYx pic.twitter.com/9xRb33rtKl

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 24, 2016

Today perverse delight is particularly perverse. #Brexit - We had better start doing something about it in the EU and beyond. Together.

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 24, 2016

Just as a start: 


My earlier Brexit-related polls - illustrating the need to constantly test our assumptions!

Which is your preferred posture in view of uncertainty (Brexit, US elections, migration, etc.)

— On security/Lundin (@londil) May 8, 2016

After a Brexit - how long time would it take to get the European act together in response to ongoing/future crises?

— On security/Lundin (@londil) January 30, 2016

To what extent will a Brexit be followed by calls for a smaller more integrated EU?

— On security/Lundin (@londil) May 8, 2016

So which is your forecast for Brexit? https://t.co/TwF3FZqA8e

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 14, 2016

Your take on the outcome of Brexit

— On security/Lundin (@londil) April 26, 2016

Four earlier #Brexit-related polls over the year so far 

The Guardian on the impact of a looming Brexit on European peace. Read here 

Picture
Picture

UK and EU in context - a basis for contingency planning 

On Brexit - what would Churchill have said?

What, no facts in the EU debate? You cannot be serious | Martin Kettle | Opinion | Guardian https://t.co/n9ZgQnHFfR pic.twitter.com/8GeacnXkK7

— On security/Lundin (@londil) May 30, 2016

Brexit and the EU-UK deal: consequences for the EU | Bruegel https://t.co/tJdSECrWqi pic.twitter.com/9MHIiI24AR

— On security/Lundin (@londil) May 8, 2016

Well worth watching. Short BBC film explaining European Union https://t.co/B7Y6Fabixy

— Michael Ryan (@EUMichaelRyan) May 12, 2016

Our @whatukthinks #EUreferendum poll of polls now stands at Remain 54, Leave 46 https://t.co/R5ebG7wsUu pic.twitter.com/tmDBft78UR

— NatCen (@NatCen) April 21, 2016

" #Obama Urges #Britain to Remain in the #EU " - #Brexit https://t.co/dkwvtkV1PZ

— Ville Kostian (@Kostian_V) April 22, 2016

Brexit campaign begins, Boris Johnson compares EU to ‘prison’ – https://t.co/0eV6s3GNOR https://t.co/aumSkeLg6U pic.twitter.com/twce0Qbyh6

— On security/Lundin (@londil) April 15, 2016

Britain faces a slide into international irrelevance if it votes to leave the EU | @dambisamoyo https://t.co/woyPMoMgo6

— Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) April 8, 2016

Juncker on Brexit - no renegotiation after a no in the referendum https://t.co/sFCtsjxyPw

— On security/Lundin (@londil) March 22, 2016

John Kerry urges UK to stay in 'united' EU https://t.co/CIgROKF5Yy pic.twitter.com/AFoWlf5ygl

— On security/Lundin (@londil) February 14, 2016

Britain Receives Proposals for ‘Better Deal’ to Stay in the E.U. - The New York Times https://t.co/z6qEojHBnr pic.twitter.com/GWvkXKpcoI

— On security/Lundin (@londil) February 3, 2016

If you care about #Brexit, keep an eye on today's @OpenEurope #EUWargames. @EnricoLetta is representing Italy https://t.co/GIW24F9wgM

— Ferdinando Giugliano (@FerdiGiugliano) January 25, 2016

Brexit: Is it 1975 all over again? Not quite... | EurActiv https://t.co/NINSRVvSWU

— On security/Lundin (@londil) January 12, 2016

The cost of Britain leaving the EU could equate to £100bn and 950,000 jobs: https://t.co/SQ6DCC2QVz #wisepc #property

— Wise Property Care (@wisepc) March 21, 2016

Yes, Minister; unveils secrets of British foreign policy on Europe; United Nations and diplomacy" on @Vimeo https://t.co/XPN7OgQw6l

— On security/Lundin (@londil) February 15, 2016

Who could block an EU 'Brexit' deal? - World News Report - EIN News https://t.co/8y2HthDIZF

— On security/Lundin (@londil) February 14, 2016

#Brexit: Why withdrawal from the EU would leave the United Kingdom with no unifying identity https://t.co/CqcPNDPOZi

— Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) January 5, 2016

10 countries, 10 EU reforms, see how #Cameron's reform agenda before #EUReferendum is doing http://t.co/unbYoeWY2F pic.twitter.com/98D9iqWReE

— ECFR European Power (@ECFRPower) September 9, 2015

David Cameron Suffers Defeat in Commons Vote on European Union Referendum Bill - World News Report - EIN News http://t.co/lxLH2yHJvq

— On security/Lundin (@londil) September 8, 2015

APA - Britain's Cameron woos Berlin and Budapest in EU reform battle https://t.co/B16wowXEjj pic.twitter.com/rPNpkPiUNU

— On security/Lundin (@londil) January 8, 2016

Britain wants to remain in the top tier of international powers over the coming decade. But is that possible? https://t.co/6pzZAs2X3E

— War On The Rocks (@WarOnTheRocks) November 26, 2015

Do you expect UK to stay in the EU?

— On security/Lundin (@londil) November 7, 2015

Poll shows UK support for EU falling under revised referendum question http://t.co/KXNH6XJItm

— EIN EU Politics (@EINEUPolitics) September 15, 2015

Corbyn's win: bad news for the EU's cause in UK. Labour will be distracted by splits and rows and unable to mobilise left voters to back EU.

— Charles Grant (@CER_Grant) September 12, 2015

The UK’s EU vote: the 1975 precedent and today’s negotiations | Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol at http://t.co/lNrkYsxFKx http://t.co/BYcwcf6rgM

— On security/Lundin (@londil) July 17, 2015

Picture

The observer on the UK and the EU - not a bad summary of the need for an EU comprehensive approach to security 

Picture
click on the text to get to the article

Resign if you back Brexit, Cameron warns party http://t.co/CvSaDUTc2R

— On security/Lundin (@londil) June 8, 2015

FAZ on Junckers visit to Cameron 

Picture
Click on text to get to the FAZ article
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Look in the handbook!

Zakaria in Washington post:

Zakaria in Washington Post: UK resigns as world power http://t.co/17DVykx02X pic.twitter.com/Vv0ThflEvI

— On security/Lundin (@londil) May 25, 2015
Picture

A British exit of the EU would have devastating consequences, but Russia relishes the possibility says @Judy_Dempsey: http://t.co/iTDK5MI2pk

— Carnegie Endowment (@CarnegieEndow) May 18, 2015
Picture
Picture

See all of Chatham House's UK General Election analysis at: http://t.co/upuw14pSo4 #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/rxYOnpQmrw

— Chatham House (@ChathamHouse) May 1, 2015
Tweets about Cameron EU

Britain has drawn down its military strength without drawing down its ambitions. And that's a problem http://t.co/MZrkK0gXBp

— War On The Rocks (@WarOnTheRocks) May 1, 2015
Tweets about Miliband EU
Om säkerhet och samarbete i Europa, kärnvapenfrågor mm. On European security and cooperation, nuclear issues and more 
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